Treasury Management Strategy 2023 to 2024

2.1 The Council employs professionally qualified and experienced staff with responsibility for making borrowing and investment decisions. Officers are supported by external advisers who are specialists in their fields. The Council currently employs Arlingclose Limited as treasury management advisers.

2.2 This approach ensures that the Council has access to a wide pool of relevant market intelligence, knowledge and skills, that would be very difficult and costly to replicate internally. However, whilst advisers provide support to the internal treasury function, final decisions on treasury matters always remain with the Council.

3.1 Treasury management decisions made by the Council must take into consideration external factors, particularly the wider economic backdrop and the outlook for financial markets and interest rates.

3.2 The major external influences on the Council’s treasury management activity in 2023/24 are expected to be the ongoing impact from the war in Ukraine, continuing high levels of inflation, higher interest rates and a challenging economic outlook.

A detailed economic commentary and interest rate forecast produced by Arlingclose is included in Annex 1.

4.1 Each of Dorset Council’s six predecessor councils had different balance sheets and different capital programmes, and each had therefore developed different treasury management strategies to suit their individual circumstances.

Dorset Council continues to develop its own strategy to meet the needs of its combined balance sheet and capital programme.

Existing borrowing and investment positions will continue to be reviewed to achieve an appropriate balance between cost and risk.

4.2 The Council’s balance sheet summary and forecast are shown in the following.

Table 1: Balance Sheet Summary (£m)

n/a	31 March 2022 actual	31 March 2023 forecast	31 March 2024 budget	31 March 2025 budget	31 March 2026 budget
Capital Financing Requirement (CFR)	345	360	400	440	475
Less PFI and other lease finance liabilities	23	23	22	21	20
Loans CFR (underlying borrowing requirement)	321	337	378	419	455
External borrowing	181	175	215	244	280
Internal Borrowing	140	162	163	175	175
Total Borrowing	321	337	378	419	455
Cash and cash equivalents	46	30	20	20	20
Treasury investments	149	90	70	45	30
Total Cash and Investments	195	120	90	65	50

4.3 The underlying need to borrow for capital purposes is measured by the Capital Financing Requirement (CFR), while usable reserves and working capital are the underlying resources available for investment. The Council’s current strategy is to maintain borrowing and investments below their underlying levels, sometimes known as internal borrowing.

4.4 CIPFA’s Prudential Code for Capital Finance in Local Authorities recommends that the Council’s total debt should be lower than its highest forecast CFR over the next three years. Table 1 shows that the Council expects to comply with this recommendation over the medium term.

4.5 To compare the Council’s actual borrowing against an alternative strategy, a liability benchmark has been calculated showing the lowest risk level of borrowing. This assumes the same forecasts as table 1 above, but that cash and investment balances are kept to a minimum level of £20m at each year-end to maintain sufficient liquidity but minimise credit risk.

4.6 The liability benchmark is an important tool to help establish whether the Council is likely to be a long-term borrower or long-term investor in the future, and so shape its strategic focus and decision making. The liability benchmark itself represents an estimate of the cumulative amount of external borrowing the Council must hold to fund its current capital and revenue plans while keeping treasury investments at the minimum level required to manage day-to-day cash flow.

Table 2: Liability Benchmark (£m)

n/a	31 March 2023 forecast	31 March 2024 budget	31 March 2025 budget	31 March 2026 budget
Outstanding borrowing	175	215	244	280
Les cash and investments	120	90	65	50
Net loans requirement	55	125	179	230
Plus liquidity allowance	20	20	20	20
Liability benchmark	75	145	199	250

 

5.1 As at 31 December 2022, the Council held £159 million of loans as part of its strategy for funding this year’s and previous years’ capital programmes. External borrowing as at 31 December 2022 is summarised in Table 3. 

Table 3 External borrowing as at 31 December 2022

External borrowing type	31 December 2022 budget £m	31 December 22 average rate %	31 December 2022 average maturity (years)
Public Works Loan Board	62.4	4.1	20.9
Banks (fixed-term)	25.6	4.7	54.6
Banks (LOBO)	11.0	4.6	54.0
Local authorities (long-term)	15.0	4.4	37.0
Local authorities (short-term)	0	0	0
Other lenders (fixed-term)	45.0	3.9	43.9
Total External Borrowing	159.0	4.2	36.6

5.2 The chief objective of the Council and its predecessors when borrowing has been to strike an appropriately low risk balance between securing low interest costs and achieving cost certainty over the period for which funds are required. The flexibility to renegotiate loans should long-term plans change is a secondary objective.

5.3 The Council’s borrowing strategy continues to address the key issue of affordability without compromising the longer-term stability of the debt portfolio. With interest rates on borrowing high relative to returns on investments it is likely to be more cost effective in the short term to use internal resources rather than external borrowing.

5.4 This strategy has enabled the Council to reduce net borrowing costs (despite foregone investment income) and to reduce overall treasury risk.

The benefits of internal and/or short-term borrowing will be monitored regularly against the potential for incurring additional costs by deferring borrowing into future years when long-term borrowing rates are forecast to rise modestly.

Arlingclose will assist the Council with this ‘cost of carry’ and breakeven analysis.

5.5 The predecessor councils had previously raised a significant proportion of their long-term borrowing from the PWLB but the Council will also consider long-term loans from other sources including banks, pension funds and other local authorities, and will investigate the possibility of issuing bonds and similar instruments, in order to lower interest costs and reduce over-reliance on one source of funding in line with the CIPFA Code.

PWLB loans are no longer available to local authorities planning to buy investment assets primarily for yield; the Council intends to avoid this activity in order to retain its access to PWLB loans.

5.6 Alternatively, the Council may arrange forward starting loans, where the interest rate is fixed in advance, but the cash is received in later years. This would enable certainty of cost to be achieved without suffering a cost of carry in the intervening period.

In addition, the Council may borrow short-term loans to cover unplanned cash flow shortages.

5.7 The Council’s approved sources of long-term and short-term borrowing are:

• HM Treasury’s PWLB lending facility (formerly the Public Works Loan Board) and any successor body
• any institution approved for investments (see below)
• any other bank or building society authorised to operate in the UK
• any other UK public sector body
• UK public and private sector pension funds (including the Dorset County Pension Fund)
• capital market bond investors
• UK Municipal Bonds Agency plc and other special purpose companies created to enable local Council bond issues

5.8 In addition, capital finance may be raised by the following methods that are not borrowing, but are classed as other debt liabilities:

• leasing
• hire purchase
• Private Finance Initiative (PFI)
• sale and leaseback

5.9 UK Municipal Bonds Agency plc was established in 2014 by the Local Government Association as an alternative to the PWLB. It issues bonds on the capital markets and lend the proceeds to local authorities. As this is a more complicated source of finance than the PWLB, any decision to raise capital financing from this route will therefore be the subject of a separate report.

5.10 The Council holds one Lender’s Option Borrower’s Option (LOBO) loan for £11m where the lender has the option to propose an increase in the interest rate at set dates, following which the Council has the option to either accept the new rate or to repay the loan at no additional cost.

5.11 Short-term and variable rate loans leave the Council exposed to the risk of short-term interest rate rises and are therefore subject to the interest rate exposure limits in the treasury management indicators below.

5.12 The PWLB allows authorities to repay loans before maturity and either pay a premium or receive a discount according to a set formula based on current interest rates. Other lenders may also be prepared to negotiate premature redemption terms.

The Council may take advantage of this and replace some loans with new loans, or repay loans without replacement, where this is expected to lead to an overall cost saving or a reduction in risk. The recent rise in interest rates means that more favourable debt rescheduling opportunities should arise than in previous years.

5.13 Where the Council finances capital expenditure by debt, it must put aside resources to repay that debt in later years. The amount charged to the revenue budget for the repayment of debt is known as Minimum Revenue Provision (MRP) and is calculated with regard to statutory guidance. The guidance requires the Council to approve an Annual MRP Statement each year, and this is included as Annex 2 to this Treasury Management Strategy.

6.1 The Council holds significant levels of invested funds, representing income received in advance of expenditure plus balances and reserves held. Cash, cash equivalents and investments held on 31 December 2022 are summarised in the following table.

Table 4: Cash and Treasury Investments (£m)

n/a	31 December 2022 balance
Cash and Cash Equivalents	n/a
Banks and Building Societies (unsecured)	2.4
Money Market Funds	39.0
Less Dorset LEP Balances*	-4.7
Total Cash and Cash Equivalents	36.7
Treasury Investments	n/a
Debt management office	34.8
Cash plus and short-dated bond funds	11.3
Strategic bond funds	9.0
Equity income funds	33.6
Property funds	23.6
Multi asset income funds	5.6
Total Treasury Investments	117.9
Total Treasury Investments	154.6

The Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership’s bank balances are held in the same NatWest Bank interest group as Dorset Council’s bank balances, meaning interest is only charged if this interest group as a whole is overdrawn.)

6.2 The CIPFA Code requires the council to invest its treasury funds prudently, and to have regard to the security and liquidity of its investments before seeking the highest rate of return, or yield.

The Council’s objective when investing money is to strike an appropriate balance between risk and return, minimising the risk of incurring losses from defaults and the risk of receiving unsuitably low investment income. Where balances are expected to be invested for more than one year, the council will aim to achieve a total return that is equal or higher than the prevailing rate of inflation, in order to maintain the spending power of the sum invested.

6.3 As demonstrated by the liability benchmark above, the council expects to be a long-term borrower and new treasury investments will therefore be made primarily to manage day-to-day cash flows using short-term low risk instruments.

6.4 The Council has investments of approximately £80m in externally managed strategic pooled investment vehicles (bond, equity, multi-asset and property funds) where short-term security and liquidity are lesser considerations, and the objectives instead are regular revenue income and long-term price stability.

6.5 Under International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9, the accounting treatment for certain investments depends on the council’s “business model” for managing them. The council aims to achieve value from its internally managed treasury investments by a business model of collecting the contractual cash flows and therefore, where other criteria are also met, these investments will continue to be accounted for at amortised cost.

6.6 The Council may invest its surplus funds with any of the counterparty types in table 5 below, subject to the cash limits (per counterparty) and the time limits shown.

Table 5 Treasury investment counterparties and limits

Sector	Time limit	Counterparty limit	Sector limit
The UK Government	50 years	Unlimited	n/a
Local authorities and other government entities	25 years	£30m	Unlimited
Secured investments	25 years	£30m	Unlimited
Banks (unsecured)	12 months	£15m	Unlimited
Building societies (unsecured)	12 months	£15m	£30m
Registered providers (unsecured)	5 years	£15m	£30m
Money market funds	n/a	£30m	Unlimited
Strategic pooled funds	n/a	£20m	£150m
Real estate investment trusts	n/a	£20m	£100m
Other investments	5 years	£15m	£30m

6.7 *Minimum credit rating:

Treasury investments in the sectors marked with an asterisk will only be made with entities whose lowest published long-term credit rating is no lower than A-. Where available, the credit rating relevant to the specific investment or class of investment is used, otherwise the counterparty credit rating is used.

However, investment decisions are never made solely based on credit ratings, and all other relevant factors including external advice will be taken into account. For entities without published credit ratings, investments may be made either where external advice indicates the entity to be of similar credit quality.

6.8 Government:

Loans, bonds and bills issued or guaranteed by national governments, regional and local authorities and multilateral development banks. These investments are not subject to bail-in, and there is generally a lower risk of insolvency, although they are not zero risk. Investments with the UK Central Government are deemed to be zero credit risk due to its ability to create additional currency and therefore may be made in unlimited amounts for up to 50 years.

6.9 Secured investments:

Investments secured on the borrower’s assets, which limits the potential losses in the event of insolvency. The amount and quality of the security will be a key factor in the investment decision.

Covered bonds and reverse repurchase agreements with banks and building societies are exempt from bail-in. Where there is no investment specific credit rating, but the collateral upon which the investment is secured has a credit rating, the higher of the collateral credit rating and the counterparty credit rating will be used.

The combined secured and unsecured investments with any one counterparty will not exceed the cash limit for secured investments.

6.10 Banks and building societies (unsecured):

Accounts, deposits, certificates of deposit and senior unsecured bonds with banks and building societies, other than multilateral development banks. These investments are subject to the risk of credit loss via a bail-in should the regulator determine that the bank is failing or likely to fail. See below for arrangements relating to operational bank accounts.

6.11 Registered providers (unsecured):

Loans and bonds issued by, guaranteed by or secured on the assets of registered providers of social housing and registered social landlords, formerly known as housing associations.

These bodies are regulated by the Regulator of Social Housing (in England), the Scottish Housing Regulator, the Welsh Government and the Department for Communities (in Northern Ireland). As providers of public services, they retain the likelihood of receiving government support if needed.

6.12 Money market funds:

Pooled funds that offer same-day or short notice liquidity and very low or no price volatility by investing in short-term money markets. They have the advantage over bank accounts of providing wide diversification of investment risks, coupled with the services of a professional fund manager in return for a small fee.

Although no sector limit applies to money market funds, the council will take care to diversify its liquid investments over a variety of providers to ensure access to cash at all times.

6.13 Strategic pooled funds:

Bond, equity and property funds offer enhanced returns over the longer term but are more volatile in the short term. These allow the council to diversify into asset classes other than cash without the need to own and manage the underlying investments.

These funds have no defined maturity date, but are available for withdrawal after a notice period, therefore their performance and continued suitability in meeting the council’s investment objectives will be monitored regularly.

6.14 Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs):

Shares in companies that invest mainly in real estate and pay the majority of their rental income to investors in a similar manner to pooled property funds.

As with property funds, REITs offer enhanced returns over the longer term, but are more volatile especially as the share price reflects changing demand for the shares as well as changes in the value of the underlying properties.

6.15 Other investments:

This category covers treasury investments not listed above, for example unsecured corporate bonds and company loans. Non-bank companies cannot be bailed-in but can become insolvent placing the council’s investment at risk.

6.16 Operational bank accounts:

The council may incur operational exposures, for example though current accounts, collection accounts and merchant acquiring services, to any UK bank with credit ratings no lower than BBB- and with assets greater than £25 billion.

These are not classed as investments but are still subject to the risk of a bank bail-in, and balances will therefore be kept below £10m per bank.

The Bank of England has stated that in the event of failure, banks with assets greater than £25 billion are more likely to be bailed-in than made insolvent, increasing the chance of the council maintaining operational continuity.

6.17 Risk assessment and credit ratings:

Credit ratings are obtained and monitored by the council’s treasury advisers, who will notify changes in ratings as they occur. Where an entity has its credit rating downgraded so that it fails to meet the approved investment criteria then:

• no new investments will be made
• any existing investments that can be recalled or sold at no cost will be
• full consideration will be given to the recall or sale of all other existing investments with the affected counterparty

6.18 Where a credit rating agency announces that a credit rating is on review for possible downgrade (also known as “rating watch negative” or “credit watch negative”) so that it may fall below the approved rating criteria, then only investments that can be withdrawn on the next working day will be made with that organisation until the outcome of the review is announced.

This policy will not apply to negative outlooks, which indicate a long-term direction of travel rather than an imminent change of rating.

6.19 Other information on the security of investments: The council understands that credit ratings are good, but not perfect, predictors of investment default.

Full regard will therefore be given to other available information on the credit quality of the organisations in which it invests, including credit default swap prices, financial statements, information on potential government support, reports in the quality financial press and analysis and advice from the council’s treasury management adviser.

No investments will be made with an organisation if there are substantive doubts about its credit quality, even though it may otherwise meet the above criteria.

6.20 When deteriorating financial market conditions affect the creditworthiness of all organisations, as happened in 2008 and 2020, this is not generally reflected in credit ratings, but can be seen in other market measures.

In these circumstances, the council will restrict its investments to those organisations of higher credit quality and reduce the maximum duration of its investments to maintain the required level of security.

The extent of these restrictions will be in line with prevailing financial market conditions. If these restrictions mean that insufficient commercial organisations of high credit quality are available to invest the council’s cash balances, then the surplus will be deposited with the UK Government or with other local authorities.

This will cause investment returns to fall but will protect the principal sum invested.

6.21 Investment limits:

the maximum that will be lent to any one organisation (other than the UK Government) will be £30 million. A group of entities under the same ownership will be treated as a single organisation for limit purposes. Credit risk exposures arising from non-treasury investments, financial derivatives and balances greater than £10 million in operational bank accounts count against the relevant investment limits.

6.22 Limits are also placed on fund managers, investments in brokers’ nominee accounts, foreign countries and industry sectors as below. Investments in pooled funds and multilateral development banks do not count against the limit for any single foreign country, since the risk is diversified over many countries.

Table 6 Additional investment limits

n/a	cash limit
Any group of pooled funds under the same management	£50m per manager
Negotiable instruments held in a broker’s nominee account	£50m per broker
Foreign countries	£25m per country

6.23 Liquidity management:

The council monitors its cash flow forecasting on a daily basis to determine the maximum period for which funds may prudently be committed. The forecast is compiled on a prudent basis to minimise the risk of the council being forced to borrow on unfavourable terms to meet its financial commitments.

Limits on long-term investments are set by reference to the council’s medium-term financial plan and cash flow forecast.

The council will spread its liquid cash over at least three providers (e.g. bank accounts and money market funds) to ensure that access to cash is maintained in the event of operational difficulties at any one provider.

7.1 The Council measures and manages its exposures to treasury management risks using the following indicators.

7.2 Security:

The council has adopted a voluntary measure of its exposure to credit risk by monitoring the value-weighted average credit score of its investment portfolio. Arlingclose calculate the credit score by applying a score to each investment (AAA = 1, AA+ = 2 etc.) and taking the average, weighted by the size of each investment. Unrated investments are assigned a score based on their perceived risk.

7.3 The target for the portfolio average credit score is 6.0.

7.4 Liquidity: The council has adopted a voluntary measure of its exposure to liquidity risk by monitoring the amount of cash available to meet unexpected payments within a rolling three-month period, without additional borrowing.

7.5 The target level of cash available within three months is £30m. In addition, the council aims to hold a minimum of £10m readily available in same day access bank accounts and/or Money Market Funds.

7.6 Interest rate exposure: This indicator is set to control the council’s exposure to interest rate risk. The impact of a change in interest rates is calculated on the assumption that maturing loans and investments will be replaced at current rates.

7.7 The upper limits on the one-year revenue impact of a 1% rise or fall in interest rates will be £1.0m.

7.8 Maturity structure of borrowing: This indicator is set to control the council’s exposure to refinancing risk. The upper and lower limits on the maturity structure of borrowing are outlined in the following table.

Table 7 Maturity structure of borrowing

n/a	Upper limit %	Lower limit %	Complied (yes or no)
Under 12 months	25	0	yes
12 Months to 2 Years	25	0	yes
2 Years to 5 Years	25	0	yes
5 Years to 10 Years	35	0	yes
10 Years to 20 Years	45	0	yes
20 Years to 30 Years	45	0	yes
30 Years to 40 Years	45	0	yes
40 Years to 50 Years	45	0	yes
50 Years and above	75	0	yes

7.9 Time periods start on the first day of each financial year. The maturity date used is the earliest date on which the lender can demand repayment.

7.10 Long-term treasury management investments: The purpose of this indicator is to control the Council’s exposure to the risk of incurring losses by seeking early repayment of its investments.

The prudential limits on the long-term treasury management investments will be £100m. Long-term investments with no fixed maturity date include strategic pooled funds and real estate investment trusts but exclude money market funds and bank accounts with no fixed maturity date as these are considered short-term.

8.1 Local authorities have previously made use of financial derivatives embedded into loans and investments both to reduce interest rate risk (e.g. interest rate collars and forward deals) and to reduce costs or increase income at the expense of greater risk (e.g. LOBO loans and callable deposits).

The general power of competence in Section 1 of the Localism Act 2011 removes much of the uncertainty over local authorities’ use of standalone financial derivatives (i.e. those that are not embedded into a loan or investment).

8.2 The council will only use standalone financial derivatives (such as swaps, forwards, futures and options) where they can be clearly demonstrated to reduce the overall level of the financial risks that the council is exposed to.

Additional risks presented, such as credit exposure to derivative counterparties, will be taken into account when determining the overall level of risk.

Embedded derivatives, including those present in pooled funds and forward starting transactions, will not be subject to this policy, although the risks they present will be managed in line with the overall treasury risk management strategy.

8.3 Financial derivative transactions may be arranged with any organisation that meets the approved investment criteria, assessed using the appropriate credit rating for derivative exposures.

The current value of any amount due from a derivative counterparty will count against the counterparty credit limit and the relevant foreign country limit.

8.4 In line with the CIPFA Code, the council will seek external advice and will consider that advice before entering into financial derivatives to ensure that it fully understands the implications.

9.1 The council has opted up to professional client status with its providers of financial services, including advisers, banks, brokers and fund managers, allowing it access to a greater range of services but without the greater regulatory protections afforded to individuals and small companies.

Given the size and range of the council’s treasury management activities, the Section 151 Officer believes this to be the most appropriate status.

The CIPFA Code does not prescribe any particular treasury management strategy for local authorities to adopt. The Section 151 Officer believes that the above strategy represents an appropriate balance between risk management and cost effectiveness. Some alternative strategies, with their financial and risk management implications, are listed below 

Alternative - invest in a narrower range of counterparties and/or for shorter times:

• impact on income and expenditure - interest income will be lower
• impact on risk management - Lower chance of losses from credit related defaults, but any such losses may be greater

Alternative - Invest in a wider range of counterparties and/or for longer times:

• impact on income and expenditure - Interest income will be higher
• impact on risk management - Increased risk of losses from credit related defaults, but any such losses may be smaller

Alternative - Borrow additional sums at long-term fixed interest rates:

• impact on income and expenditure - Debt interest costs will rise; this is unlikely to be offset by higher investment income
• impact on risk management - Higher investment balance leading to a higher impact in the event of a default; however long-term interest costs may be more certain

Alternative - Borrow short-term or variable loans instead of long-term fixed rates:

• impact on income and expenditure - Debt interest costs will initially be lower
• impact on risk management - Increases in debt interest costs will be broadly offset by rising investment income in the medium term, but long-term costs may be less certain

Alternative - Reduce level of borrowing:

• impact on income and expenditure - Saving on debt interest is likely to exceed lost investment income
• impact on risk management - Reduced investment balance leading to a lower impact in the event of a default; however long-term interest costs may be less certain

 

Service Investments

11.1 The council may make investments to assist local public services, including making loans to or investing in local service providers, including its own subsidiaries to support local public services and stimulate local economic growth.

11.2 The main risk when making service loans is that the borrower will be unable to repay the principal lent and/or the interest due. The council makes every reasonable effort to collect the full sum lent and has appropriate credit control arrangements in place to recover overdue repayments and assesses the risk of loss before entering into and whilst holding service loans.

11.3 The council may invest in the shares of its subsidiaries, its suppliers, and local businesses to support local public services and stimulate local economic growth. One of the risks of investing in shares is that they fall in value meaning that the initial outlay may not be recovered and the council assesses the risk of loss before entering into and whilst holding shares.

11.4 The value and risks of service investments must remain proportionate to the size of the council. As at 31 March 2022, the council held service loans to town and parish councils, local charities and other organisations totalling £3.0m and shares in subsidiaries valued at £33,000. Commercial Investments

11.5 The council may invest in property or other commercial activities purely or mainly for financial gain, but local authorities must not borrow to invest primarily for financial returns. As financial return is the main objective, the council may accept a higher level of risk on commercial investments than with treasury investments.

11.6 The value and risks of commercial investments must remain proportionate to the size of the council, and contingency plans must be put in place should expected yields not materialise. The council has no investments held purely or mainly for financial gain.

Economic background

The ongoing impact on the UK from the war in Ukraine, together with higher inflation, higher interest rates, uncertain government policy, and a deteriorating economic outlook, will be major influences on the Authority’s treasury management strategy for 2023/24.

The Bank of England (BoE) increased Bank Rate by 0.5% to 3.5% in December 2022. This followed a 0.75% rise in November which was the largest single rate hike since 1989 and the ninth successive rise since December 2021.

The December decision was voted for by a 6-3 majority of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with two dissenters voting for a no-change at 3% and one for a larger rise of 0.75%.

The November quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecast a prolonged but shallow recession in the UK with CPI inflation remaining elevated at over 10% in the near-term.

While the projected peak of inflation is lower than in the August report, due in part to the government’s support package for household energy costs, inflation is expected remain higher for longer over the forecast horizon and the economic outlook remains weak, with unemployment projected to start rising.

The UK economy contracted by 0.3% between July and September 2022 according to the Office for National Statistics, and the BoE forecasts Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decline 0.75% in the second half of the calendar year due to the squeeze on household income from higher energy costs and goods prices.

Growth is then expected to continue to fall throughout 2023 and the first half of 2024.

CPI inflation is expected to have peaked at around 11% in the last calendar quarter of 2022 and then fall sharply to 1.4%, below the 2% target, in two years’ time and to 0% in three years’ time if Bank Rate follows the path implied by financial markets at the time of the November MPR (a peak of 5.25%).

However, the BoE stated it considered this path to be too high, suggesting that the peak in interest rates will be lower, reducing the risk of inflation falling too far below target. Market rates have fallen since the time of the November MPR.

The labour market remains tight for now, with the most recent statistics showing the unemployment rate was 3.7%. Earnings were up strongly in nominal terms by 6.1% for both total pay and for regular pay but factoring in inflation means real pay for both measures was -2.7%. Looking forward, the November MPR shows the labour market weakening in response to the deteriorating outlook for growth, leading to the unemployment rate rising to around 6.5% in 2025.

Interest rates have also been rising sharply in the US, with the Federal Reserve increasing the range on its key interest rate by 0.5% in December 2022 to 4.25%- 4.5%. This rise follows four successive 0.75% rises in a pace of tightening that has seen rates increase from 0.25%-0.50% in March 2022. Annual inflation has been slowing in the US but remains above 7%.

GDP grew at an annualised rate of 3.2% (revised up from 2.9%) between July and September 2022, but with official interest rates expected to rise even further in the coming months, a recession in the region is widely expected at some point during 2023.

Inflation rose consistently in the Euro Zone since the start of the year, hitting a peak annual rate of 10.6% in October 2022, before declining to 10.1% in November. Economic growth has been weakening with an upwardly revised expansion of 0.3% (from 0.2%) in the three months to September 2022.

As with the UK and US, the European Central Bank has been on an interest rate tightening cycle, pushing up its three key interest rates by 0.50% in December, following two consecutive 0.75% rises, taking its main refinancing rate to 2.5% and deposit facility rate to 2.0%.

Credit outlook

Credit default swap (CDS) prices have generally followed an upward trend throughout 2022, indicating higher credit risk.

They have been boosted by the war in Ukraine, increasing economic and political uncertainty and a weaker global and UK outlook, but remain well below the levels seen at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

CDS price volatility was higher in 2022 compared to 2021 and the divergence in prices between ringfenced (retail) and non-ringfenced (investment) banking entities has emerged once again.

The weakening economic picture during 2022 led the credit rating agencies to reflect this in their assessment of the outlook for the UK sovereign as well as several local authorities and financial institutions, revising them from to negative from stable.

There are competing tensions in the banking sector which could impact bank balance sheet strength going forward. The weakening economic outlook and likely recessions in many regions increase the possibility of a deterioration in the quality of banks’ assets, while higher interest rates provide a boost to net income and profitability.

However, the institutions on Arlingclose’s counterparty list remain well-capitalised and their counterparty advice on both recommended institutions and maximum duration remain under constant review and will continue to reflect economic conditions and the credit outlook.

Interest rate forecast (December 2022)

Arlingclose forecasts that Bank Rate will continue to rise in 2023 as the Bank of England attempts to subdue inflation which is significantly above its 2% target.

While interest rate expectations reduced during October and November 2022, multiple interest rate rises are still expected over the forecast horizon despite looming recession.

Arlingclose expects Bank Rate to rise to 4.25% by June 2023 under its central case, with the risks in the near- and medium-term to the upside should inflation not evolve as the Bank forecasts and remains persistently higher.

Yields are expected to remain broadly at current levels over the medium-term, with 5-, 10- and 20-year gilt yields expected to average around 3.5%, 3.5%, and 3.85% respectively over the 3-year period to December 2025.

The risks for short, medium and longer-term yields are judged to be broadly balanced over the forecast horizon.

As ever, there will undoubtedly be short-term volatility due to economic and political uncertainty and events.

Underlying assumptions

• the influence of the mini-budget on rates and yields continues to wane following the more responsible approach shown by the new incumbents of Downing Street
• volatility in global markets continues, however, as investors seek the extent to which central banks are willing to tighten policy, as evidence of recessionary conditions builds. Investors have been more willing to price in the downturn in growth, easing financial conditions, to the displeasure of policymakers. This raises the risk that central banks will incur a policy error by tightening too much
• the UK economy is already experiencing recessionary conditions and recent GDP and PMI data suggests the economy entered a technical recession in Q3 2022. The resilience shown by the economy has been surprising, despite the downturn in business activity and household spending. Lower demand should bear down on business pricing power – recent data suggests the UK has passed peak inflation
• the lagged effect of the sharp tightening of monetary policy, and the lingering effects of the mini-budget on the housing market, widespread strike action, alongside high inflation, will continue to put pressure on household disposable income and wealth. The short- to medium-term outlook for the UK economy remains bleak
• demand for labour appears to be ebbing, but not quickly enough in the official data for most MPC policymakers. The labour market remains the bright spot in the economy and persisting employment strength may support activity, although there is a feeling of borrowed time. The MPC focus is on nominal wage growth, despite the huge real term pay cuts being experienced by the vast majority. Bank Rate will remain relatively high(er) until both inflation and wage growth declines
• global bond yields remain volatile as investors price in recessions even as central bankers push back on expectations for rate cuts in 2023. The US labour market remains tight and the Fed wants to see persistently higher policy rates, but the lagged effects of past hikes will depress activity more significantly to test the Fed’s resolve
• while the BoE appears to be somewhat more dovish given the weak outlook for the UK economy, the ECB seems to harbour (worryingly) few doubts about the short term direction of policy. Gilt yields will be broadly supported by both significant new bond supply and global rates expectations due to hawkish central bankers, offsetting the effects of declining inflation and growth

Forecast

• the MPC raised Bank Rate by 50bps to 3.5% in December as expected, with signs that some members believe that 3% is restrictive enough. However, a majority of members think further increases in Bank Rate might be required. Arlingclose continues to expect Bank Rate to peak at 4.25%, with further 25bps rises February, March and May 2023
• the MPC will cut rates in the medium term to stimulate a stuttering UK economy, but will be reluctant to do so until wage growth eases. We see rate cuts in the first half of 2024
• Arlingclose expects gilt yields to remain broadly steady over the medium term, although with continued volatility across shorter time periods
• gilt yields face pressures to both sides from hawkish US/EZ central bank policy on one hand to the weak global economic outlook on the other. BoE bond sales and high government borrowing will provide further underlying support for yields

1. Where the council finances capital expenditure by debt, it must put aside resources to repay that debt in later years. The amount charged to the revenue budget for the repayment of debt is known as Minimum Revenue Provision (MRP), although there has been no statutory minimum since 2008.

The Local Government Act 2003 requires the council to have regard to the then Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government’s Guidance on Minimum Revenue Provision (the MHCLG Guidance) most recently issued in 2018.

2. The broad aim of the MHCLG Guidance is to ensure that capital expenditure is financed over a period that is either reasonably commensurate with that over which the capital expenditure provides benefits, or, in the case of borrowing supported by Government Revenue Support Grant, reasonably commensurate with the period implicit in the determination of that grant.

3. The MHCLG Guidance requires the council to approve an Annual MRP Statement each year and recommends a number of options for calculating a prudent amount of MRP. The following statement incorporates options recommended in the MHCLG Guidance:

• for capital expenditure incurred before 1st April 2008 MRP will be determined as 4% of the capital financing requirement in respect of that expenditure
• for capital expenditure incurred after 31st March 2008, MRP will be determined by charging the expenditure over the expected useful life of the relevant asset in equal instalments, starting in the year after the asset becomes operational. MRP on purchases of freehold land will be charged over 50 years. MRP on expenditure not related to fixed assets but which has been capitalised by regulation or direction will be charged over 20 years
• for assets acquired by leases or the Private Finance Initiative, MRP will be determined as being equal to the element of the rent or charge that goes to write down the balance sheet liability
• where former operating leases will be brought onto the balance sheet due to the adoption of the IFRS 16 Leases accounting standard, and the asset values have been adjusted for accruals, prepayments, premiums and/or incentives, then the annual MRP charges will be adjusted so that the total charge to revenue remains unaffected by the new standard

4. Capital expenditure incurred during 2023/24 will not be subject to a MRP charge until 2024/25 or later

This strategy was agreed by full council on the 14 February 2023. 

The strategy will be reviewed in 2024.